The Silent Siren: How Taiwan Became a Pawn in the Great Game

The recent Beijing summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping has left many wondering what exactly was achieved during the high-profile meeting. While both leaders made grand statements about their nations’ willingness to cooperate, one issue that remains shrouded in uncertainty is the fate of American arms sales to Taiwan.

The United States is facing a delicate balancing act between its commitment to defend Taiwan and its desire to placate China. The Taiwan Relations Act, signed into law by President Jimmy Carter in 1979, obliges Washington to provide Taipei with arms for defensive purposes. However, Trump’s administration has been hesitant to approve the latest $14 billion package.

This hesitation is not surprising, given the increasingly complex web of relationships between the United States, China, and Taiwan. Xi Jinping used Trump’s vulnerabilities – namely the ongoing Iran war and its own faltering plans for withdrawing troops – as leverage to secure concessions from the US. As Joseph Bosco, a former China Country Desk Officer in the US Office of the Secretary of Defense, noted: “Xi Jinping thought this was a good time to press very hard on the most important issue they perceive, which is Taiwan.”

The stakes are high for both sides. For Taiwan, the sale of American arms represents a vital lifeline against an increasingly assertive China. Taiwanese authorities have long been aware that Beijing views the island as a renegade province, and the specter of Chinese military intervention remains ever-present. Meanwhile, Washington’s commitment to defending Taiwan is rooted in its own strategic interests, including maintaining a foothold in East Asia and countering China’s growing regional influence.

However, Trump’s administration seems unwilling or unable to make a clear decision on the arms sales package. With Xi inviting himself to visit Washington in September – likely to press for further concessions – it is increasingly likely that any resolution will be delayed until then. As John Dotson, director at the Global Taiwan Institute, observed: “Perhaps there might be a desire within the administration to avoid roiling the waters before that, and any further arms sales might be deferred.”

The deferment of American arms sales has significant implications for the region. By maintaining the status quo – and delaying any concrete action on Taiwan – Washington is effectively giving Xi a free hand to pursue his own strategic objectives.

This approach raises questions about Trump’s administration’s commitment to defending Taiwan or whether it is merely using the island as a bargaining chip in its Great Game with China. While some may argue that this approach represents a pragmatic attempt to manage competing interests and avoid escalating tensions, others will see it as a betrayal of Washington’s long-standing obligations to Taipei.

The fate of American arms sales to Taiwan remains shrouded in uncertainty – a reflection of the complex and often contradictory priorities driving US foreign policy. As Derek Scissors, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, noted: “The obvious trade here was Taiwan for Iran.” By prioritizing its interests in one region over another, Washington risks alienating its allies and emboldening its rivals.

The future of US-Taiwan relations hangs precariously in the balance, while China’s assertiveness only seems to grow more brazen by the day. In this uncertain environment, one thing is certain: Washington’s failure to act decisively on Taiwan will have far-reaching consequences for regional stability – and potentially beyond.