War by Proxy in Ukraine: A Long Game of Deterrence and Denial

The latest flurry of diplomatic activity surrounding the war in Ukraine has many observers focusing on the talks between US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and Russian leader Vladimir Putin. These high-level meetings are a significant development, but they represent just one aspect of a complex conflict.

Putin’s regime has been engaging in “frank” and “constructive” talks with the US envoys while continuing to escalate military action on the ground. This dual approach is a hallmark of Russia’s long game strategy: maintaining a facade of diplomatic engagement while pursuing objectives through military means.

Recent Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, have raised concerns about the humanitarian situation on the ground. However, Ukraine’s defense ministry notes that these attacks are part of a calculated strategy to wear down the Ukrainian military and weaken its ability to resist.

A key issue largely overlooked in media coverage is the lack of progress on security guarantees for Ukraine. Despite Zelensky’s insistence that any peace deal must include “security guarantees,” it remains unclear what concrete measures would be put in place to prevent future Russian aggression. This omission is particularly worrying given Russia’s track record of violating agreements and disregarding international law.

The talks between Witkoff, Kushner, Putin, and Zelensky have been largely opaque, adding to the confusion. While both sides have issued positive statements about the discussions, it remains unclear what specific concessions or compromises were made during the talks. This lack of transparency is a hallmark of Russia’s negotiating style, which often relies on vague promises and hidden agendas.

The current situation in Ukraine is not just a bilateral conflict between two nations but also part of a larger regional dynamic. The ongoing war has significant implications for Europe’s security architecture, with many countries struggling to balance their relationships with both Russia and the US.

Russian aggression in Ukraine has a long history, dating back to the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the ongoing military intervention in eastern Ukraine. This pattern of behavior raises questions about the effectiveness of diplomatic efforts aimed at persuading Moscow to change its ways.

The recent talks between Witkoff, Kushner, Putin, and Zelensky are just one iteration in a long series of failed attempts to negotiate an end to the conflict. To truly understand the dynamics at play, it is essential to look beyond the current headlines and examine the deeper structural issues driving this war.

By prioritizing a nuanced understanding of this conflict and its underlying dynamics, we can begin to identify potential solutions that address the root causes rather than just treating its symptoms. The future of Ukraine hangs in the balance as Russia continues to pursue a strategy of war by proxy.